Planetizen provided me this link to this January 3, 2009 Boston Globe article, Study Finds Housing Key to Job Growth. I have to tell you, looking at the growing number of foreclosures happening both to homeowners and to builders, I think the release of this study was ill-timed. Arguably there are links between housing growth and employment growth. There is clearly a need for a match between the two, but what is the correct match? Which should come first? Were the numbers of houses being built in the areas cited built to attract jobs? Or were they built in anticipation that the rapid job growth would create a need for housing?
Is the current recession due to a drop in housing construction? Or did housing construction drop because of job losses?
The article is even more interesting, in that the Globe, the very next day, called the results of this study into question. In the article Seeing Ahead in 2009, any widely held belief that housing availability is tied to job growth is debunked. The economic recession is highlighted. The drop in housing production as a percent of the overall national economy has hit the lows that typically signal the end to a housing bust. The report notes that several leading economists are predicting even further drops in housing production and value.
Other reports illustrate that several of the states cited in the Housing Study report are among the tops in home foreclosures. Indianapolis, Indiana and Columbus, Ohio are highlighted in the opening statement of the "models." Ohio is the third highest foreclosure state in the country (here), and tops among the "Rust Belt" states. The Housing Study also compares Boston to Los Angeles and San Diego relative to housing costs, California is the number 1 state for foreclosures. You can read more about San Diego's building problems here.
So, where are we? Did housing growth hold back job growth? Did municipal regulations hold back housing growth and therefore job growth? Or, did the local area, and by that I mean much of New England, learn from the last housing bust? I have talked to many of the local builders here on the Cape in recent weeks. They are reporting that they are sweating out this downturn, but they expect to make it. They say that they will make it through this one because they did not get over extended with building "spec housing."
I would concede that there are communities that are exclusionary. However, I think it is hard to blame the employment drag in the local economy on the lack of housing construction or these exclusionary tendencies. New land use development patterns are clearly needed, as will increased state spending for infrastructure projects to support these new land use patterns. Higher densities in some areas, increased open space preservation in others is needed. The one-acre and larger lot sizes everywhere is not sustainable, but the "solution du-jour" of simply pushing higher densities, is also not sustainable. In 2003, Mass Audubon reported we were losing as much as 78 acres of open land (farm and forest) to development every day. We simply cannot solve the housing construction shortage, if there is one, while not addressing the loss of forest and farms in the state as well.
In a number of recent reports the Globe has taken a very anti-community position. Printing the results of every report that relates any possible problem to the lack of housing. It really seems like if Mass Housing Partnership lends its name to a report, the report is gospel and not subject to rational evaluation. The Globe mantra continues to be towns are bad, zoning is bad. Time for the Globe and Mass Housing Partnership to step up and look at what is being done for housing at the local level. Perhaps the Globe and Mass Housing Partnership should look at the Affordable Housing Strategies: Regional "Best Practices" Toolkit by the Cape Cod Commission. It is time for the Globe to start focusing on the positive things communities are doing to promote housing options, rather than continuously pointing out their perception of the problem. The tools are there to promote creative housing opportunities. They are not being taken advantage of.
Local zoning did not hold back the last economic cycle. Local zoning is not the cause of the current bust. Zoning provides tools to guide development in a fashion that ensures community compatibility. If we have learned anything in the past 30 years it is that the "projects" (like Cabrini Green) do not work. Housing choices must fit into a community setting. The Cape Cod Commission report illustrates what communities are doing to ensure a good fit.
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