Thursday, January 22, 2009

Statewide Population Estimates

Here is an interesting article from the NY Times on the most recent population estimates from the Census Bureau, As Economy Stalls, Fewer New Yorkers Moving Out of State.

The writers, and analysts they turned to, have more data available to them than we can get off of the Census Bureau's website, but it draws some interesting conclusions about the changes in NY. Here are a few of the better quotes to contemplate:

"The collapse of home values across the country appears to have already profoundly affected the ability of people in many states, including New York, to sell their homes and move, curtailing domestic migration."

Massachusetts grew 0.46% between 2007 and 2008, New York grew by 0.31% in that time period. No one from New Jersey to Maine grew faster than Massachusetts for that year.

"Florida, which saw a significant drop in its annual influx of New Yorkers, lost more people to other states — nearly 10,000 more — than it gained for the first time in recent history."

"California also faced an anomaly in the most recent data: for the first time since the early 1990s, more people moved out of California than out of New York. That earlier period coincided with a recession in California caused by defense industry cutbacks."

The two states that the Northeast usually loses out to, are now facing their own out-migration. Not that their population is dropping - California grew by 1.03% in the past year. However, that growth appears to be more immigration from other countries and natural growth (birth versus death rates).

"...while the decline in people leaving New York was spread evenly across the state, the number moving in rose mainly in New York City."

Perhaps the economic downturn will help cities....

Other interesting tidbits include the fact that states, such as New York and, by extension looking at our population growth numbers, Massachusetts may not be as unaffordable as they have been viewed in the past as the housing market has fallen. Not necessarily good economic news in itself, but, as housing prices have dropped they have become far more accessible to working class people than at any time in the past several years.

I have pulled some of this census material off of American Factfinder and will present a few comparisons in the next few days

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