Housing And State Consistency

So the Land Use Partnership Act believes that communities are not supporting state goals for housing and economic development. The state establishes a 5% housing growth target over a 10 year time frame. The belief is that cities and towns are blocking the states ability to meet this goal. However, if the state believes that 5% housing growth over 10 years is the appropriate target, what do the numbers really illustrate?

The U.S. Census reports that housing has increased by 3.8% between the 2000 Census and 2007, for an average of 0.55% annually, exceeding this target set by the state.

Looking at the Northeast Region (New England/New York/New Jersey) the Census shows the following growth figures:

.........................7 Year Growth..Average Growth ..Units Added
Massachusetts .......3.8%.................. 0.55% .................100,201
Connecticut ............3.8% ................. 0.54% ..................52,461
Rhode Island ..........2.5% .................0.36% ..................11,047
Vermont ..................5.8% .................0.83% ..................17,052
New Hampshire .....8.6% .................1.23% ...................47,028
Maine .......................6.9% .................0.98% ..................44,710
New York ................3.4% .................0.48% .................260,539
New Jersey .............5.7% .................0.82% .................189,131

As the chart above illustrates, Massachusetts added nearly twice the number of housing units of the other New England states. The rates of growth are larger in those other states due to the smaller starting base. Another interesting figure compares housing growth to population growth.

....................................Housing to Population
.............................................Rate of
.....................................Growth Ratio
Massachusetts ..................2.4:1
Connecticut .......................1.3:1
Rhode Island ....................2.8:1
Vermont ............................2.8:1
New Hampshire ................1.3:1
Maine .................................2.1:1
New York ..........................2.0:1
New Jersey .......................1.8:1

Again, Massachusetts is around the high end for this analysis as well. However, California, Arizona and Florida have been held up as the yardstick for comparison. California has experienced a 1.28% annual increase in housing which relates to a 1.13:1 rate of growth ratio. For Arizona the relevant numbers were 3.12% and 0.92:1. Finally for Florida the numbers were 5.37% and 2.6:1.

So, what does all this mean? Housing growth in Massachusetts is not all that out of character with these other regions. Our housing growth rate in comparison to population growth rate is higher than in these other areas. While our population growth may be slower than some other region's, we are actually providing far more housing opportunities than Arizona or California for our population growth than these rapidly growing states.

Of course, numbers can be manipulated to support any cause. I personally look at these numbers and say things look pretty good. Others will try to say the numbers illustrate that somehow we are holding back growth. Draw your own conclusions.